The world is shocked by the Russian invasion in Ukraine, but everything is logical, everything happens for a reason. Even the classic books on geopolitics “The clash of civilizations”, “The Grand Chess Board” and “The world next 100 years” were predicting the hotspots like Ukraine, Syria and Iran.
When we’re kids we don’t like to play games which we’re losing, it’s more satisfactory to invent new games with our own rules.
Communism failed because it relied on people’s altruism; propaganda was not sufficient to develop and maintain it. Capitalism prevailed because it relied on people’s greed and vanity – I want to have more money, women, kids and stuff than others, so I’ll work 16 hours a day, but at the end the whole society will prosper from my extra efforts.
Russia couldn’t swallow the loss of the Cold War and stepped down on the on the pyramid of civilization development by embracing the outdated ideology “bully, to be respected”, the realpolitik, orthodox Christianity. It was pity that Russia didn’t go for the new religions of future based on neuroscience and evolution, but from the other side the ideological degradation is understandable – people were tired of ideologies, they wanted a rest, to consume something shiny and crunchy here and now. And above all, in entire Russian history, people never lived in freedom, they never tasted freedom, they don’t believe in freedom, they never trusted freedom.
The ideological Cold War loss for Russia was followed by practical negative consequences:
- The game of Capitalism is favorable for those who know its rules and tricks, who are big enough and well established. The new players, including Bulgaria, experienced massive losses because their industries were not given enough time to adapt, ordinary people were directly dropped naked in waters full of sharks, Ponzi schemes, addictions, vanity. Despite the people’s intellect, they were not capable to compete, or to add value to their work and products, therefore the main income came from selling cheap raw materials and resources, like third world countries.
- Apart from the gigantic resources and money drain, there was a massive brain, youth and beauty drain. 30 years after the end of the socialism, Bulgaria lost 30% of its population and those who remained are more stupid, old, ugly and nationalistic.
- The economic expansion of Western Capitalism was followed by the military expansion of NATO, despite the promises given to Gorbatchov and Yeltsin who peacefully dismantled USSR and Warsaw Pact.
- The lack of respect to losers hurts on personal level, both leaders and ordinary people. The West could have said to Russia – it was nice playing the Cold War with you, but let’s have a sip of Vodka. Russia and US were global N1 powers. Now, despite its size, Russia is turning into a third world country. It hurts more when you fall from higher position.
The above negative outcomes pushed Russia to find its own path of development. Russia doesn’t have anything new to offer to the world, so main goals are protecting the too big territory and resources and solving its identity crisis. The easiest way of finding yourself is becoming the opposite of your opponent, which of course is stupid because you’re no longer yourself. If the West represents democracy, freedom of speech, human rights, multietnicity, multiculture, freedom of gender and sexuality then Russia will be the opposite of these. East Orthodox Christianity moral values, Russian empire history and politics based on the real military power serve the new Russian identity. For a while it sells well. Authoritarian third world leaders like the new Russian way because it keeps them longer in power or because their societies are not mature for democracy. The future N1 – China, cannot be N1 without authoritarianism and brainwashing its people.
Meanwhile, the new Russian vision is challenged at its backyard – Ukraine.
Ukrainians overthrow the pro-Russian president Yanukovich, who didn’t want to sign agreement towards the pro-European development of the country. Russia’s ideology will be badly challenged if Ukraine demonstrates that people can prosper and live happily by embracing the Western ideology. Ukraine is too close, too big and too interconnected with Russia. Russia simply cannot afford prosperous Ukraine as it will show ordinary Russians that the current Russian’s way is wrong.
The clear pro-European choice of Ukraine caused pain and Russia ceased Crimea, which indeed was mostly Russian, Russian fought 2 bloody wars with Turkey about it.
Meanwhile, Ukraine deepened its integration with the west. Trade borders were removed, people are easily working in Europe. Prosperity is coming, together with freedom, more happiness.
In every village in the world, there are people, who are not happy when their neighbors are happy and vice versa – some people feel happy, when their neighbor suffers.
Many people say that the Russian aggression is unprovoked, Putin is crazy. No, everything follows a clear logic and calculations. Crimea – the first Russian attack came after Ukraine chose its pro-European future. The current 2022 full scale attach came after Ukraine made its pro-NATO choice. The eastward expansion of the Liberal Capitalism is followed by the military expansion of NATO. For 10 years, Russian were complaining about it and now a new contract, halting of North Stream, a delivery of certain weapons, or something we don’t know yet made the Russians attack. Or it was just a well-planned calculation about the right timing, the Corona weakness, fuel prices, end of petrol age, etc.
By the way, the West is not very fair in its economical games, it’s also aggressive towards Russia but in a hidden and hypocritical way. It’s kind of twisted when you don't like someone, but they push you to love him, to make business with him. When Russia tried to stop giving annually billions to Ukraine by building South Stream gas pipe to Bulgaria via Black Sea, EU blocked it in the name of the energy security. Again in the name of energy security (Germany is more important than Bulgaria) EU allowed the building of North Stream, but then it stopped it under the US pressure.
The current Russian aggression has two scenarios:
- Russia grabs land up to Crimea. At the moment Crimea is just an island, which suffers from lack of water, previously delivered from the mainland. Russia stops the war feeling like a winner.
- Russia grabs more land and connects to Pridnestrovie – a Moldovian territory with Russian people. Odessa is multiethnic city, part of Russian culture and history. This way Russia cuts Black Sea access of Ukraine, making it a land lock country, thus restricting its economic prosperity and therefore the ideological harm it would do on Russia.
Russia needs a failed Ukraine, but doesn’t have the resources to occupy it and to run it in long term. Unlike Belorussians, Ukrainian people are stronger nationalists, who tasted freedom and won’t obey Russia.
In any of those scenarios, the coming sanctions will deepen the economic wars and set new mechanisms to deal in future with China, Iran and alike. Rising fuel and energy prices will accelerate the Green business, but making other businesses and ordinary people weaker and poorer.
Still, it’s nice to feel free, even with an empty stomach
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